| 9-14-00
Update
 |
| This
disturbance has been sitting there for four
days and is slowly drifting north. So far, it
shows no tendency toward development. |
The potential for
tropical cyclone development in the Atlantic
remains unfavorable as the unusual weather pattern
we pointed out several weeks ago continues. For the
next 7 days there is almost no chance that the US
Atlantic coast will be threatened by a hurricane.
Crazy Florence continues to sit in the same place
for the last four days, harmlessly spinning in circles,
much like Crazy Alberto did last month. Although this
is the sixth named storm, none of them have been of
any consequence.
The Cape Verde hurricane
season is seems to be coming to a premature end, and
now the emphasis is going to shift to the Gulf and
Western Caribbean. A depression has been attempting
to form in the Yucatan Straits for the last three
days but just hasn't been able to get going. It is
only about 200 miles from Key West and may still yet
develop. Florida west coast and panhandle boaters
should remain alert to this one as it is very close
and could flare up suddenly. With your very low land
and shallow, gently sloping shorelines, be aware that
even minor storms can produce high storm surges.
However, note that
storms that move south to north are less of a threat
to the west coat because winds tend to parallel the
shoreline. Winds on the back or south side tend
to be much weaker. Even so, minimal precautions are
still necessary. Those of you on north sides of bays
are most at risk. This would include Tampa Bay, Fort
Meyers and the north side of Naples as well as all
Panhandle areas/
Gulf storms are much
different than Cape Verde storms. For one thing, they
have a lot less distance to travel before they make
landfall. Another is that they mainly threaten only
the Gulf coast. They pose very little threat to east
coast Florida boaters as these storms have to travel
across the peninsula. However, these storms can be
a threat to small boats on the wider bays in the Cape
Canaveral area under certain conditions.
Gulf storms are also
notable for their maddening unpredictability in terms
of where they're headed. Often they meander around
aimlessly, wreaking havoc with everyone's work schedules.
Though late season storms tend to be weaker, that
is not always the case. Let's not forget Opal in 1995
which reached Cat 4 strength before going ashore as
a Cat 3 and causing great damage in the Florida panhandle.
In the meantime, the
eastern Atlantic coast is likely to remain free of
hurricane threats for the coming week and possibly
the rest of the season, while the Gulf coast could
well see increased activity. I think there is a likelihood
of increased Gulf storm activity this year as the
season there seems to be starting very early. Look
for a flurry of activity toward the End of September,
early October.
To see more current
satellite graphics, go to:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics.html
*
* * * *
09-05-00
In
our companion article, The Need for Improved Hurricane
Forecasting, we offered some suggestions on how
the NHC they can expand their service and improve
the kind of forecasting products they issue.
At issue is not long
range, but short range advisories. Since they haven't
seen their way to offering hurricane outlook
forecasts, we decided to take our own amateur stab
at the job, presented here. Weather-wise this has
been a very unusual year with the Atlantic high shifted
far to the west. Over the last three weeks, we've
witnessed a weather pattern over the western mid and
south Atlantic that has created a virtual barrier
to the possibility of a tropical storm reaching the
US. This came in the form of a major shift in the
Atlantic or Bermuda high and the formation of several
troughs extending deep into the Caribbean. This has
prevented both storm formation, and to destroy any
storms that do form.
 |
| The 9-5-00
satellite water vapor image reveals distinct
weather patterns. It's almost impossible for
storms to develop or traverse this obstacle
course of adverse conditions. |
These troughs continue
to persist over the western Atlantic and Caribbean
and continue to both inhibit storm formation and to
destroy any that do form. Therefore, it is very unlikely
that southeast coastal boaters will have any storms
to contend with over the next week 9-4 through 9-9.
 |
| 9-05-00 The
Atlantic high is nowhere near Bermuda. |
How much longer will
this trend continue? Until such time as the western
Atlantic high shows signs of shift back east, if it
ever does. A recent very strong wave coming off the
coast of Africa showed every sign of developing until
it ran into the strong shearing winds that remain
dominant along a north/south axis over the leeward
islands. Attempting move through this trough, it's
meeting the same fate as the short-lived Ernesto
As a tropical system, it's unlikely to make it as
far as the windward islands.
Here's the question
that a lot of hurricane alley residents would like
an answer to: "Do I dare leave home on business,
boating trip or vacation at this time?" My answer
is that odds are very much in your favor that you
won't be faced with dire warnings of a hurricane approaching
while you're away for a week or so. Of course, if
you're leaving your boat unattended, you should at
least do the minimal extra securing.
Could this pattern
suddenly change overnight? No, but it could change
within 2-3 days, which would put us 9-10 days out
from the development of, to the arrival of any Cape
Verde storm, considering the distances such storms
have to travel. By then we should be approaching
the end of the Cape Verde season. The emphasis there
being on the word should but it's best no one
place bets on that.
This pattern could
continue all the way through the Cape Verde season
and become one of those rare years with no threats
by Cape Verde storms. But keep in mind that there
isn't just one hurricane season, but in reality three
distinct seasons. The first is the early, or mini
season that covers late May and early June when weak
western Caribbean or Gulf storms can form. Then comes
the Cape Verde season from about the second week in
August through September, at which time the area of
storm formation abruptly shifts back to the western
Caribbean.
Only when that happens,
the storms that form in the Western Caribbean aren't
limited to Weak Willies. Opal in 1995 (October 3-5),
Cat 3, was such a storm. The Caribbean season is only
4 weeks away, and it kind of makes you wonder if there
are no more Cape Verde storms, will the Caribbean
season be more active? Historically, such logic hasn't
been the case. Still . . . you have to wonder. Or
will this be an Andrew type year where one lone superstorm
comes roaring in out of the blue? We need a crystal
ball to answer that one.
Stay tuned, well let
you know if this weather pattern changes. Or, you
can check out this link to the NOAA web site where
there is a wealth of tropical data available.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics.html
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