| Much
as we expected, the Gulf/Western Caribbean Hurricane
has been much more active this year, first spawning
a couple of weak Cat One storms and now Keith, a quintessential
horror story of a storm. What makes Keith such a frightening
prospect is the lack of steering currents which has
had it barely drifting at 2kts for the last 48 hours.
Keith as of 10-01-00, 0800
Slow moving storms
like this offer up the worst possible scenario because
of the long period of time in which the worst of the
effects are experienced. It's one thing to have hurricane
conditions for 6 hours, something else again for hurricane
conditions to last 12 hours or more.
The coastal Yucatan
Peninsula just south of Cozumel has been bearing the
brunt of the storm now for close to 24 hours. This
is likely a tragedy of major proportions for local
residents as staggering rainfall rates are generated
by the barely moving storm. Combined with 100+kt.
winds for duration periods exceeding 12 hours, the
effects on people as well as property will be awesome.
Slow moving storms like this present the worst case
scenario for hurricanes.
The prognosis for Keith
is a northerly track, taking it up the Yucatan coast
line and over Cozumel. As of this writing the eye
is about to go ashore, and gradual weakening will
occur. Despite this, the burgeoning tourist resort
of Cancun will still be hit hard.
All Marine interests
on the CONUS Gulf coast should pay close attention
to this storm. It will likely be Tuesday or Wednesday
before Keith emerges into the Gulf. The problem here
is that at this point, the storm's track is basically
unpredictable. If the storm's northerly movement remains
as slow as it is, it will emerge off the Yucatan coastline
greatly weakened. Current predictions have it coming
off land still at hurricane force. Once in the Gulf,
it is expected to rapidly regain strength. Where it
goes after that is anyone's guess, but as of the moment,
the central Gulf appears to be the most likely target.
Once entering the Gulf.
the forward speed is expected to increase. This yields
a probable CONUS landfall window of around Friday-Saturday.
Boat owners throughout the Gulf region now have plenty
of advance warning to get prepared.
NHC projection as of 10-1-00, 0500
Joyce The Cape
Verde season threw little at us this year, but TS
Joyce, now situated near Trinidad, which nearly died
out yesterday, is again resuming strength as it enters
a somewhat more favorable area. Joyce took on more
northwesterly course, just enough to keep her from
slamming into S. America. Her current direction is
slightly north of west and, as with Keith, it's course
over the next few days remains uncertain.
Despite the fact that
the official hurricane season is nearly a close, this
season is not yet over by any means. Yet another western
Caribbean storm could develop in the wake of Keith,
as conditions remain highly favorable for storm development.
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